Estimating the Long-Term Impact of Major Events on Consumption Patterns: Evidence from COVID-19 – MSI

Working Paper

Estimating the Long-Term Impact of Major Events on Consumption Patterns: Evidence from COVID-19

Elliot Shin Oblander

Columbia University

Daniel McCarthy

Emory University

Jan 24, 2023

Uses an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of customer-level credit card panel data pre-/post-COVID-19 to determine short and long-term impacts on purchase behavior across multiple categories (airlines, apparel, restaurants, grocery, furniture, movie theaters and gym/fitness).

Topics

Consumer Behavior & Insights marketing analytics Omnichannels & Customer Journey

research recap

Covid-19 Impact by Category: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Widespread COVID-19 disruptions shifted buying behavior from in-store to online. Understanding which trends will persist—and for which categories—presents a challenge. Because virtually all consumers were affected, no true (“untreated”) experimental control groups exist. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses offer an alternative way to analyze changes in consumer behavior pre-/post-COVID.

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